Winter 2015/16 –versus-
9th Post - 05 January 2016
On New Year’s Eve 2015 the Met- Office
What’s been happening to our weather?
by Arnd Bernaerts
Indicating that “In this blog our Chief Scientist, Professor Dame Julia
Slingo, discusses what factors may have influenced the record breaking weather
we have seen in recent weeks”; one can only wonder how little attention is paid to historical precedence,
in this case to corresponding months during pronounced El Nino events, namely
1939/40 and during the last months this year. One need only to look at the
first three items raised by Dame Julia Slingo, and it is obvious that the
difference are so great that neither raising them, nor discussing them, not
even mentioning them is a big failure and insufficient scientific research and
December 2015 will go down in meteorological
history as one of the wettest – and warmest – on record.
Sept/Oct/Nov 1939 were extreme wet in
West-Europe, incl. southern UK.
December 2015 will go down in meteorological
history as one of the warmest – on record.
December 1939 temperatures dropped sharply
Met-Off _3rd paragraph
Throughout the month, the
winds have come from the south or southwest,
October 1939 onward wind came from NE a very rare occasion.
However, it does seem that
this year the unusual warmth of the North East Pacific Ocean may have altered
the position of these waves across North America and into the Atlantic
December 1939 shows over Russia a pronounced
positive deviation instead of a negative anomaly.
See the analysis by
Erkki Palosuo (1953)
- Next box -
Finnish ice expert Erkki Palosuo
(1953) outlined the early winter
weather phenomenon over the Baltic as follows
15, the atmospheric pressure in Greenland had reached a remarkably high level
(1065mb). As low pressure simultaneously prevailed in Central Russia (995mb)
very cold air began to flow westward at high speed from the northern side of
this low pressure area, and a very severe frosty period began in the
region of the Baltic. The outbreak of cold air resulted in an
independent cold air pool (“Kaltlufttropfen”) in Germany which persisted in
the area for nearly a week. The cold air pool in the German area began to
move on January 24 towards the Baltic region from where, reinforced, it
pushed back to German territory on February 7. On February 12, its centre was
in the region of Hamburg , from where, moving slowly, it arrived in East
Germany about February 20.
(see: ‘section i’ at : http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c7/c7.html
The first to
notice is the certainty that the extreme winter 1939/40 was not caused by the El Niño event in place in 1939.
The second point is that the Met-Office cannot seriously discuss current
weather conditions with complete ignorance of the big deviation from long term winter
weather 1939/40. This winter came not out of the blue, but was
man-made. That is what weather services and climate research should be able to
explain the general public.
For Information and Record
weather drama in December 1939 intensified in in January 2016 lasting until end of February. To
give the reader a better feeling of the war time 76 ago, we first provide some NYT excerpts (02-07 January 1940), and
subsequently a number of today weather
graphics (01-04 January) for the record, as the blog will continue
investigating the claim by Prof. S. Brönnimann (HERE) that the extreme winter
weather stood in correlation with an El
Niño event. The next 6-8 weeks will prove him or me wrong.
BACK to TOP
Posts since October 2015 on:
2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
(20. Oct): Has El Niño a
role on sub-cold winters in Europe? A continuous comparison
Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme
winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-
Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-
Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End
of October 2015 -18a-
Post 3 (19.Nov): El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-
Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939 –
By naval war not El Niño –-16-
Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe - December 1939
Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-
Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-
Post 8 (Special): Northern
Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-
Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the
Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-
Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on
winter 1939/40.a shame! -10-
Back to 1st Post
About winter 1939/40 further reading:
of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?
Oceans Make Climate!”
Back to top→→→
14. June 2013: Met Office
bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)
April 2013: Met-Off
loose talk on cold March 2013?
North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
April 2013: 'Urgent'
need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should
investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic
Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did
the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim!
29 March 2013: Cold
March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)
27. March 2013: Strong
Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North-
and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March
2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities
contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold
March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain!
07 March 2013: Winter
2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will
prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern
Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North-
and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.
December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are
we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December
on arctic warming causes cold winters
Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice
results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high
northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially
in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at
middle latitudes of the northern continents.”
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