Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
Jet Stream blocked in late
– By naval war not El Niño
Posted: 01 December 2015
West-Wind, Jet Stream, Blocks
The flow of war moisture air from the North Atlantic
eastwards to Siberia is the guarantor for modest winter in Europe. At a time
meteorology knew little about the jet stream (at around 9–12 km above sea
level), they spoke about what they could see and feel, the west-wind drift
(WWD). During WWII flyers consistently noticed westerly tailwinds in excess of
160 km/h in flights, for example, from the US to the UK. WWII not only
increased understanding what is going on in the upper atmosphere, but on the
ground meteorology did not grasp that naval war since 1st September 1939 influenced ‘usual’ weather pattern, by a huge
weather-blocking four months later, providing Europe with the coldest winter
for more than 100 years.
Blocks in meteorology are large-scale patterns in the
atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively
"blocking" or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking
highs or blocking anticyclones.
In northern Europe anticyclonic blocks over western
Russia and Scandinavia during the winter months can bring sub-zero easterly
winds on their southern flanks, sometimes extending into the Atlantic Ocean and
forcing the prevailing jet stream as far south as Portugal and Spain. Northern
and Western European severe winters are caused by such blocks. (wikipedia)
As all WWII armies, needed for their warfare
strategies the best weather information possible. Data from that time are available in huge quantity, but
climatic research is blind to use them to explain the presumably most pronounce
sudden weather changes during WWII, particularly the extreme winters in Europe
1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/41.
Observation by the German naval weather service (Seewarte)
from “Climate Change and Naval War” -
September 1939 -Temp.-Anomaly
23 September 1939; With the advance of Atlantic air
into Middle Europe a more forceful cyclone can develop along this channel
(Rinne) which could extend its influence in the Middle Europe later.
1939; Northwest-European high–pressure area (anticyclone), dominated the
general weather for a long time. This high, that usually is located far to the
East (cf. the weather situation a year earlier) is responsible for the
well-known late summer period of fine weather, now pushed so far to the West
that Germany lay at its Eastern rim and thus got into the cold Northern stream
which was interspersed with disturbances.
October 1939 Temp.-Anomaly
13 October 1939; Along with a peripheral low, the
first effective gust of maritime air has reached Northern Germany . A
continuous WWD, however, cannot be expected yet..
23 October 1939; Usual weather
is changing now and the high pressure bridge which links the Azores high with
the West Russian high is broken up. A transition to a west wind situation is on
the verge of the German seas.
28 October 1939; Since a
high pressure bridge from Middle Scandinavia to Scotland remains, a further
stream of cold air from the Nordic Sea area is cut off.
Left: 01 Nov 1939
Left: Battle ship
November 1939 Temp.-Anomaly
14 November 1939; It seems
that a mainly sectional circulation is going to take over in the general
weather situation: its pressure field will be characterized by a long high
pressure zone – Azores –Southern Germany – Southern Russia – and WWD-like
turbulence activity in the North of these regions.
1939; West Siberian high is slowly retreating towards the East thereby allowing
the disturbance coming from the West to penetrate still deeper into the regions
of European Russia.
30 November 1939; A very
distinct west wind weather situation rules over North and Middle Europe.
The first few days of December see attempts by rather
weak cyclonic storms to reclaim their common path of travel from the Atlantic
to the Eastern hemisphere. By 7th December 1939 a high pressure
forms near Aachen (West Germany/Belgium), stretching to Norway , the ‘last
straw’ that led to a severe winter condition. The WWD widely was blocked.
Extreme cold could take reign up to the eastern North
Atlantic. Development of severe weather conditions during the first war
winter of 1939/40 was not an erratic incident by nature. This could be well
illustrated by various comments on the missing “west-wind-drift” by
meteorologists responsible for the preparation of daily weather charts.
El Nino 2015 and autumn weather in Europe
El Nino continues to
go strong. To special signal was felt in Europe throughout autumn, compared
with previous years. No big change in wind direction, or precipitation of up to
300% of average as in autumn 1939. The North Sea and Baltic SST were well above
average since last September. Jet stream and WWD pass into and trough Europe
without hindrance. No change can be assumed well to mid of December 2015. The current
situation is normal, which was not the case in 1939 at this time.
Throughout autumn weather pattern changed significantly,
the wind direction, precipitation,, (More: HERE) and the move of cyclones. All
signs indicated strongly the build-up of a blocking system. The drama started
in December 1939, which will be discussed in the next post (Post 5) in about
three weeks. Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to: email@example.com.
Back to 1st Post
Posts since October 2015 on:
2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
(20. Oct): Has El Niño a
role on sub-cold winters in Europe? A continuous comparison
Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme
winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-
Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-
Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End
of October 2015 -18a-
Post 3 (19.Nov): El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-
Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939 –
By naval war not El Niño –-16-
Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe - December 1939
Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-
Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-
Post 8 (Special): Northern
Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-
Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the
Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-
Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on
winter 1939/40.a shame! -10-
About winter 1939/40 further reading:
of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?
Oceans Make Climate!”
Back to top→→→
14. June 2013: Met Office
bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)
April 2013: Met-Off
loose talk on cold March 2013?
North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
April 2013: 'Urgent'
need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should
investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic
Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did
the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim!
29 March 2013: Cold
March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)
27. March 2013: Strong
Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North-
and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March
2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities
contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold
March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain!
07 March 2013: Winter
2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will
prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern
Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North-
and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.
December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are
we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December
on arctic warming causes cold winters
Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice
results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high
northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially
in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at
middle latitudes of the northern continents.”
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