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 dr_arnd(x)yahoo.de
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El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015
PART 3: Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40 

Posted: 19 November 2015 (OGC-12-17)

 
A. Introduction

Fig.1
The picture is clear. A strong El Niño is building up in the Pacific, many global impacts are assumed, but the prolonged El Niño between 1939 and 1942 is not part in the current discussion. During those winters the conditions dropped to Little Ice Age level, and climate sciences does not care. They did not provide any reasonable explanation during the last 75 years, and are missing the chance to investigate now, whether the extreme  Europe winters 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/42 had any correlation with El Niño 1939, or had been caused by naval warfare. As El Niño research commenced after WWII (World War II), exact data from previous El Niño are rare, while sufficient material about the extreme weather conditions in Europe is available (see below), this autumn so far of course as well. The next figures indicate the difference between global temperature anomalies in autumn 1939 and 2015 versus previous decades.
 

 

September

 1939 vs 2015

Fig. 2 & 4

 


 

October

1939 vs 2015

Fig. 3 & 5

 

 

 

November

1939 vs 2015

Fig. 4 & 

 

 

Current El Niño  will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016 (NOAA, 12. Nov. 2015). During the last six months El Niño has stringent, and the newspaper raise the issue as alarmistic as possible, most recently e.g. The Washington Post ; UN News Centre; The Weather Channel , UN News Centre, There are numerous other news articles with the same underlying alarmism, quoting scientists who speak about the “Godzilla El Niño”.

B. Autumn in Europe 1939 (S/O/N)

Winter 1938 had been one of the warmest since the Little Ice Age, and until September 1939 weather in Europe received rain a bit above average, but was otherwise on the level of previous years. The pre-war global warming trend continued.

Fig. 7 - 4th Quarter 1939 (Sept/Oct/Nov) Global emperature anomalies
Below: Fig. 8, 9 & 10



 

 

Since 1st September weather got ‘nervous’. Atlantic cyclones became increasingly blocked from moving directly via Western Europe eastwards, and almost abandoned by mid-December (Fig.10). The reason was increasing high pressure over Scandinavia. (more: HERE)., with a big change in wind direction, Fig. 13. That caused record precipitation up to 300%, (more: HERE) form Munich to London, Fig.  11. Nevertheless, temperatures moderate lower than average in Sept/Oct (Fig. 2,3) , and warmer until the end of November 1939 (Fig. 4), but thereon changed dramatically in early December.


Fig. 11, 12 & 13

 

 

 According an analysis by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ, 14 January 1940) the development of cold conditions happened as follows:       
„Severe cold which flooded the whole of Europe in the course of this week was by no means an accidental phenomenon that set in surprisingly. It rather constitutes the peak of a development which had its beginning in the first week of December. Towards its end high pressure began to stabilize in North and Middle Europe, keeping away the low Atlantic cyclones from the continent and diverting them mainly through Greenland and Iceland waters to the Sea….As soon as occasional Atlantic depressions moved East through the North and Baltic Sea, they were immediately replaced by entry of cold air from the Greenland area.”
More:  Book Chapter C5; sub-sec.: “Blocking observed but not understood”
HERE

December 1939 is discussed in December 2015.

C. Autumn in Europe 2015 (S/O/N)


The world’s climate has reached a major turning point and is set to deliver record-breaking global temperatures in 2015 and 2016, according to a new report from the UK Met Office (29.Nov.15). Heatwaves scorched China, Russia, Australia and parts of South America. Europe is not among the named - yet. Fig. 4 and 5, indicate towards a colder autumn season.  The last month October was very normal Fig.: 15. 

left Fig 14: Winter 2015/16 forecast!

Since last May the air is full of forecasts:  

May 14. 2015; The increase in risk of a colder winter this year from the developing El Niño is currently considered small. MetOff/UK. May 14. 2015.
May 20, 2015; Brace yourself for snowstorms and freezing temperatures: Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe.
dails,ail.co.uk , May 20, 2015.
Sept.15, 2015¸The UK could be in for a bitterly cold and snowy winter due to the effects of the El Nino phenomenon, which experts have said is at its strongest for decades.
independent.com.uk ; Sept.15, 2015
Sept.17, 2015; BRITAIN is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill.
express.co.uk;

  20.Oct.2015:  “Europe shouldn't look to last El Niño for clues to this winter: Braun” Reuter,  Excerpt  in ANNEX 1, below.

29. Oct. 2015: Most of the global drivers discussed above tend to increase the chances of westerly weather patterns during our November to January outlook period. Our numerical prediction model, being sensitive to these drivers, also predicts a higher-than-normal chance of westerly conditions. This results in an outlook for an increased chance of milder- and wetter-than-usual conditions, and a decreased chance of colder and drier conditions, for the UK. Our outlook also indicates an increase in the risk of windy or even stormy weather.  MetOff/UK

How will El Niño affect Europe during winter 2015/16? The forecasting industry offers plenty opinions.  “The early part of winter is likely to be mild and potentially even hot for most of Southern, Central and Northern Europe. Eastern Europe on the other hand will be affected by the “Beast from the East” - Siberian Cold. The North Asian cold is likely to seep into western Russia and Eastern Europe leading to colder temperatures and snowfall. …. While the El Niño will likely be strong enough to keep warmer and drier conditions throughout Southern Europe, the waning  (North Atlantic) cold blob will allow more cold air will sweep in from the Arctic, crashing with the southern warm air” Ref.. “The classic signature of a strong El Nino is a strong Alaska low, troughing across western N America, ridging across SE Canada and a broad trough dominating the North Atlantic to the west of the UK, while pressure is high over mainland EuropeRef..

D. Autumn 2015 in View and Outlook

 



 Forecast T°C anomaly

17-23 November 2015

Fig. 15. T°C Annomaly Oct.2015

Fig. 15: Prec. 19/10-17/11, 2015

Fig.16, T°C anomaly 8-14.Nov.15  

Fig. 17

Until now little to nothing indicates that autumn 1939 and autumn 2015 have much in common. The next weeks an months  will show whether that changes. El Niño continuous to show strength, and this blog continue to analyse its impact on Europe versus winter 1939/40.

 
Back to 1st Post

 Annex 1

STRONG EL NIÑO: GOOD FOR EUROPE?

Excerpt from REUTER (Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:52am EDT)
“Europe shouldn't look to last El Niño for clues to this winter: Braun”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-europe-weather-braun-idUSKCN0SE24T20151020#3ukceIcOJlJp3KI2.97

Even though between El Niño and winter in Europe are loose, the strength of this year's event may work in Europe's favor. With a near-record El Niño already in progress, there are only two other years that compare in strength to tack back to, 1982/83 and 1997/98.

In examining several of the past "standard-strength" El Niño winters, jet stream activity was rather weak directly over the European continent, allowing cold, dry Siberian air to sink down into Eastern Europe, particularly the Balkans, Ukraine and western Russia. These winters were a degree or two colder than normal in these areas but were generally normal elsewhere.

During the winters of 1983 and 1998, the active jet stream was positioned over Europe and took on a westerly to southwesterly direction, transporting warmer, wetter air towards the continent. As such, much of Europe and western Russia was warmer than normal. Further, European winter crops harvested in 1998 yielded much better than average.

With only two analogue years, it is almost impossible to tell whether the warmer 1983 and 1998 winters were purely coincidental, or whether the extraordinarily warm tropical Pacific waters influenced this atmospheric set-up over Europe. But if the NAO and AO trend positive this winter in addition to the massive El Niño, the odds for a mild winter across Europe multiply considerably.

(Reporting by Karen Braun, editing by David Evans)

Comment: The last paragraph proves that climate research is only guessing. Ten years ago Prof. Stephan Brönnimann et al, in a Letter to Nature-2004, assumes  that prolonged  El Nino since 1939 was at least partially to blame for the extreme winter 1939/40 (HERE). On the other hand for the Reuter authors seem to have nothing read about this, but suggesting Europe shouldn't look to last El Niño for clues to this winter: Braun”. It is time that climate sciences is looking into S. Brönnimann’s claim, and tell the public the causes of the extreme European winter 1939/40.

Back to 1st Post

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-


Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015

 

About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!” 
http://www.seaclimate.com/

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  Older Posts

14 December 2014:  How serious is Met-Office to understand  a “weather bomb” 

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 

 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss  http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”

 

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Material 
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Euro-Countries
Temp.-Trend

Nasa-Global
Temp.-1939-1942

September 1939 
30 daily weather maps 

Sea Ice Condition 
Baltic Sea WWII

 

 


Book extract:

C2.  Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected

http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c2/images/rand/rb/3.jpg