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Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
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 El Niño, U.S.A., Autumn & Winter (2015/16 -1939/40)

2. Post – 22. October 2015 (ocl_12-18)

The global El Niño winter commenced already few weeks ago.  Since long California struggles with a serious drought, but hope that El Niño changes the situation. Los Angeles Times discuss it in depth, and reports intensively the various views and prediction offered by weather forecaster and climatologist, ignoring what happened in autumn 75 years ago.

Starting with a few LAT references, the attention is drawn to the exceptional weather condition in California in September 1939, the record dryness across Western US in autumn, and record cold in SE-US in January 1940, by an extract from the book “Climate Change & Naval War” (2005, Trafford/USA), Chapter “2_32” (HERE)

Some graphics are attached to support the discussion.

Forecast winter 2015/16 – Average, DJF Global & Europe, El Nino impact (Fig. 21-23)

Los Angeles Times (LAT) on: El Niño & the California Drought

Los Angeles Times, 14 August 2015: “The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California.
    The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.”
       “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.” 

AT –Article- 16-19 October 2015 (22. October 2015) (Fig. 24 - 25)

·  Flash floods trap visitors, rangers in Death Valley National Park 
·  Flood advisory issued for L.A. Basin as heavy rains sweep through Southern California 
·  Santa Ana winds expected to blow into Southern California this week 
·  In the drought-parched Central Valley, a waiting game begins

·  Drought takes toll on 'agritourism' farms that once thrived on Halloween crowds 
·  California mudslides and chaos offer a preview of what El Niño could bring 
·  Drivers describe long night on road as mudslides engulf nearly 200 vehicles 
·  28 things to do to prepare for El Niño rains this season




USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 
Abstract form:


Since the initial days of September 1939 a battle line several hundred kilometres long stretched through Central Europe from the Strait of Dover and the Helgoland Bight to Switzerland with attacks of various intensity; missions and encounters taking place every day. As has been explained in the previous chapter, it rained excessively in Central Europe, presumably due to military activities over land and at sea. In early September the Russian and Japanese Armies met in a severe encounter in the Outer Mongolia (A), whereby California experienced an eight days heat wave, since about September 16th followed by a severe tropical storm (NYT, 25 September) and record rain. It was the heaviest September rain in Los Angeles’ weather history and it broke the worst heat wave in Weather Bureau records, as measured by intensity and duration. It lasted for eight days. (NYT, 26 September). During summer 1939 an El Niño was active off South America’s coast. Made events in Europe, China and the equatorial Pacific Ocean record weather in California? 

Accepting the status-quo as it is, it might be interesting to see whether it is possible to identify a reflex action in the air that reached North America from the French-German, or the Polish-German front in Europe, e.g. from the fires burning in Warsaw during the second half of September, or even from the fighting in China? Actually, with regard to contemporary climatic conditions in the United States, it is a fact that the weather changed suddenly from too wet to too dry between summer 1939 and winter 1939/40.

Figure 26 (details below Fig. 27-30) CLICK to enlarge

The winter of 1938/39 in the United States was abnormally wet particularly in the eastern United States and in the Southwest, with the larger part of the country having above–normal conditions. The spring of 1939 was exceptionally dry with only a few States from the Mississippi Valley eastward having somewhat more than normal rainfall. From the Great Plains westward, all States experienced deficient rainfall. The summer was relatively wet eastward of the Great Plains, except in the Northeast, where rainfall was deficient in almost all sections. The fall season was extremely dry over large areas, although amounts of precipitation were a little bit above normal in Utah, Colorado and Arizona. For all the areas eastward of the Rocky Mountains it was the driest fall on record [R.J. Martin, 1939]

With regard to anthropogenic rain making due to military activities in Europe and Asia, and due to the fact that ‘aerosols’ from battle fields, for example in Poland during September 1939, could easily make their way to the USA, it should at least be mentioned here that in California precipitation in September 1939 was 370 % above normal (Alabama, 119%; Arizona, 335%; Nevada 327%; Utah 261%). However, in most States, September 1939 was unusual  dry.

 A closer look at a few areas, which received above normal rain in the fall of 1939, reveals that it was the result of high precipitation levels in September. Figures given below show the percentage of normal precipitation. It may be noted that the States named by Martin [1939] are normally very dry during the months October –December.  


Sept. 261 %

Oct. 119 %

Nov. 15 %

Dec. 37 %


Sept. 83 %

Oct. 50 %

Nov. 32 %

Dec. 51 %


Sept. 335 %

Oct.55 %

Nov. 136 %

Dec. 29 %

  Source of maps                             South Dakota and Wyoming recorded a mere 1 percent, and North Dakota and Nebraska recorded just 5 percent. Only Arizona exceeded the ‘average mark’ by 136 percent. November 1939 was the driest month in the history of the whole of the USA,  the rain average about 30 percent lower than the ‘ dry spring average’, with the driest months May (72 percent) and April (94 percent). 

The total precipitation in the 42 States of the USA during the closing months of the year 1939 as listed by the Monthly Weather Review[1939] was as follows: 

Percentage of normal precipitation in 42 States (figures in approximation)




The ‘unusual dry air’ during November 1939 was quickly noticed (NYT, 07 Jan. 1940). The recorded dry months of October to December 1939 coincide perfectly with the excessive rain in central Europe where the battles were being waged. 

The United States pushed into the cold – January 1940
Extract from book

 New York experienced the hottest day on record on October 10, 1939 (NYT, 11 Oct. 1939, p. 26 – Commentary). Ironically, only a few days later the same City, and many other parts of the United States, were shivering under a steadily falling thermometer approaching freezing temperatures (NYT, 18 Oct. 1939), dropping to a record low level for that date. (NYT, 19 Oct. 1939). At the same time, war had started in Europe in earnest, and the North Atlantic took the first torpedoed vessels down to its bottom, while Japan was in combat with Chinese forces. Could the extreme conditions New York experienced in mid October 1939 have been caused by WWII activities?  This section will leave it to anyone’s guess as it will focus on the question why the following January 1940 proved to be record cold for the USA which was not expected either. 

The first signs of a ‘real’ winter emerged at Christmas time 1939, when except for the Deep South and California, the United States had snow and extreme cold. (NYT, 26 Dec. 1939). Winter came earnestly in early January 1940, with a frigid wave that gripped most of the United States (NYT, 06 Jan. 1940). Icy north-westerly winds swept over New York with force, on January 06, causing temperatures to drop to an average of 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal (NYT, 07 Jan.40). From the Continental Divide to the Atlantic Coast there were strange occurrences as compared with normal weather conditions. Frigid waves even touched the northern parts of Florida. (ditto). Was this due to the unusually dry air in November 1939, as noted by Dr. James Kimball in ‘The New York Times’ on January 7th  (NYT, ditto), which actually continued well into December 1939 (see below)? That December had not been as dry as November in statistical terms, maybe due to snow that fell with the Christmas cold, e.g. between St. Louis and Louisville the snow generally was 6 inches deep.                     
              Full text at:


United States in Autumn 1939 (Sept; Oct; Nov. Dec.) and January 1940, Fig. 27-30  ( Details from Fig. 26 )






Back to 1st Post

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015



“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!”

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14 December 2014:  How serious is Met-Office to understand  a “weather bomb” 

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)


 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”


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September 1939 
30 daily weather maps 

Sea Ice Condition 
Baltic Sea WWII



Book extract:

C2.  Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected