Stephan Brönnimann: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño!
Offers El Niño 2015/16 clues for extreme winter in Europe?
Naval War ./.  El Niño – That is the question!
   Arnd Bernaerts, 21. October 2015 ( ocl-12-19 )

1.   Introduction

 Worst, science is not even willing to investigate the event thoroughly. Two views address the issue:

__1_Prof. Stephan Brönnimann et al.,Letter to Nature (NATURE |VOL 431|21 OCTOBER 2004) wrote:

 “Although the El Niño /Southern Oscillation phenomenon is the most prominent mode of climate variability and affects weather and climate in large parts of the world, its effects on Europe and the high-latitude stratosphere are controversial. Using historical observations and reconstruction techniques, we analyse the anomalous state of the troposphere and stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to 1942 that occurred during a strong and long-lasting El Niño event.

CONCLUDING:
The results suggest that the global climate anomaly in 1940 to 1942 — previously poorly documented — constitutes a key period for our understanding of large-scale climate variability and global El Niño effects.

__2_The post author oppose the view: It was naval war which commenced in September 1939 and increase in Europe’s waters culminating in the Baltic Sea in early 1942, , from where on naval war went westwards in the Atlantic after Japan ambushed Pearl Harbor, ending the exceptional series of cold winters in Europe.  explained in numerous analysis and books.  In his most previous book a full chapter discuss the  El Niño thesis (Chapter F – 6 pages) concluding:

“It is explicitly acknowledgeable that Brönnimann et al discussed the severity of the first three war winters and their importance for climate research. It seems that they were the only ones who did it. Unfortunately, their contribution is limited to very general statements, and due to the lack of facts and analysis there is little room for discussion. Neither is the assertion of a persistent El Niño event being justified, nor have any weather conditions during the three winter seasons in question been addressed. The Authors fail, to contribute to a better understanding of the causes for the three exceptional winters of 1939/40, 1949/41 and 1941/42. “

More details from Chapter F will be provided in subsequent posts.

2.   A unique opportunity?

 The El Nino prediction engine runs full gear since months: The list of headlines is already long. Just for introduction only a few:

·         __ Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe (dailymail, 20. May 2015)

·         _ A so-called "Godzilla El Nino" could bring .a freezing winter in Britain… colder than average winters in northern Europe., (telegraph.co.uk, 14 August 2015)

·        __This winter will not be normal: Forecasters say El Niño is set to outgrow 1997 event as they warn phenomenon is now too big to fail (dailymail.co.uk, 14. October 2915)

·         _Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather (NOAA October 15, 2015)

__HEAVY SNOW WARNING: Worst El Nino in recorded HISTORY means UK faces winter WHITE-OUT [express.co.uk, 21Oct15]: “The overall situation has also worsened in terms of much colder than average sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic.” NOAA said the all but unprecedented sequence of events threatens devastating impacts. Deputy director Mike Halpert: “A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter.”

The offers the opportunity to check whether S. Brönnimann’s claim concerning what caused the extreme war winter in World War II, deserves credit and to what extent. AT least it should start and a more intensive discussion about the reason of the three extreme war winters in Europe 1939/40 to 19541/42. This would largely improve understanding the mechanism of climate change betters, a better assessment of the role naval war has played in the global cooling phase from 1940 to about 1970, and the impact of the ocean in the weather and climate system.

This will be done by establishing a frequently updated record during the forthcoming winter season. Starting today with publishing some SST-Anomaly  (sea surface temperature), in Europe and Global in recent months and current air temperatures forecast, They shall on one hand inform on the current situation, but either be at hand when discussing the winter weather from December 2015 onwards. In focus is Europe and the Brönnimann et al thesis, without fading out the situation in U.S., Siberia and elsewhere.

More about: „What initiates El Niños ?”

·        http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html#ql

·        http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/03/how-much-of-global-temperature-increase-is-due-to-el-nino/

 Next to: 2. Post (22/Oct/15)

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

 3.     Extract from Book-Chapter F

F. Any role of El Niño?

a. Asking the right question?

The claim that an El Niño may have played a significant role in the extreme winters early in WWII (Brönnimann, 2004; see: A2i) is not supported and is therefore discussed hereafter. Any investigation should be open to finding the best answer, which should include: Did winter conditions in Europe alter those observed or assumed in the Pacific? If it is possible to recognise an El Niño-southern-oscillation (ENSO) as a source for climate variability elsewhere, with the same logic one has to accept that any other ocean space with a comparable physical status, can be the source of global variability elsewhere as well. Here the discussion is limited to the El Niño thesis: Did an ENSO phenomenon play any decisive role in the extreme war winters in Europe 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/42? Evidently that requires not only establishing that there had been an El Niño long and strong enough to cover all three winters, but most important, that it was evidently a major cause for three extraordinary extreme war winters. All points are unproven speculations, and do in no way challenge the validity of the naval war thesis.

…cont//…

 

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015

 

Further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!” 
http://www.seaclimate.com/

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