Winter 2015/16 – versus - Winter 1939/40
Introduction

Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?
 A continuous comparisons

Author: Dr. Arnd Bernaerts - 20 October 2015 (OCL-Home)

A. Introduction

The impact of the current strong El Niño in the Pacific on Europe’s forthcoming winters is the issue. By a detailed account in a frequent series of post over the next months we aim to assess the correlation between the event in the Central Pacific and its impact on the winter weather in Europe, to bring more light into an event 75 years ago. Since late 1939 three events occurred simultaneously: El Niño, World War II, and an extreme winter.  Therefor we are going to investigate and discuss this issue during the forthcoming winter 2015/16 in a series of analyzes.  The reasons will be explained as follows:

The circumstance of most pronounced climatic shift in modern time is still unknown. This is completely unacceptable as the winter 1939/40 marked the beginning of a global cooling lasting for three decades until about 1975 for which either no convincing explanation as been provided yet, which makes science ignorance about the commencement of the cooling particular annoying. They obviously ignore that together with the start of World War II (WWII) also huge naval operation took place, and both, the extreme war winters in Europe, as well as the three decades global cooling, stand in close causal correlation, which is extensively investigated and discussed in two books:

2005 – Climate Change & Naval War, A Scientific Assessment – (325 pages);
 2012 – Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars – (221 pages )

Instead of taking the WWII issue into account Prof. Stephan Brönnimann and Colleagues related the three extreme European war winters to an El Niño in a Letter to NATURE (Vol. 431, 2004):

Extreme climate of the global troposphere and stratosphere
 in 1940–42 related to El Niño

Concluding;
The results suggest that the global climate anomaly in 1940 to 1942 — previously poorly documented — constitutes a key period for our understanding of large-scale climate variability and global El Niño effects.

In the same NATURE issue, William J. Randel  picks up Brönnimann’s  assessment, “…that climate anomalies associated with large El  Niño of 1940-42 extended to much more of the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe”, The caption to Figure 1 reads: “Europe, winter 1940 – a Pacific link?”.

B. El Niño in Europe    

Since early summer 2015 likely impact of an emerging El Niño on the next winter weather is reviewed. What weather can be expected, warmer, normal or colder? Brönnimann et al. assumed in their Letter to NATUR: “According to several observational and modelling studies, the ‘canonical’ El Niño winter signal in Europe consists of cold temperatures in Northern Europe, high SLP (sea level pressure field) from Iceland to Scandinavia and low SLP over central and western Europe, as in 1940–42.”

Here are few excerpts about what El Niño may have in coffer for Europe:

May 14. 2015; The increase in risk of a colder winter this year from the developing El Niño is currently considered small. MetOff/UK. May 14. 2015

May 20, 2015; Brace yourself for snowstorms and freezing temperatures: Met Office confirms fears El Nino could cause a harsh winter in Europe. dails,ail.co.uk , May 20, 2015

Sept.15, 2015¸The UK could be in for a bitterly cold and snowy winter due to the effects of the El Nino phenomenon, which experts have said is at its strongest for decades. independent.com.uk ; Sept.15, 2015

Sept.17, 2015; BRITAIN is facing the most savage winter in more than 50 years with months of heavy snowfall and bitter Arctic winds set to bring the country to a total standstill. express.co.uk;

29. Oct. 2015: Most of the global drivers discussed above tend to increase the chances of westerly weather patterns during our November to January outlook period. Our numerical prediction model, being sensitive to these drivers, also predicts a higher-than-normal chance of westerly conditions. This results in an outlook for an increased chance of milder- and wetter-than-usual conditions, and a decreased chance of colder and drier conditions, for the UK. Our outlook also indicates an increase in the risk of windy or even stormy weather.  MetOff/UK

NASA –Temperature Anomaly Maps 1939
– 4 Quarterly and 12 Monthly –

Neither Brönnimann nor Actually the crux starts with the unproven claim that there had been a prolonged El Niño from autumn 1939 to spring 1942. The claim is superficial and not at all helpful. One needs only to go through the Nasa/Giss temperature series, which show many months with neutral or modestly higher temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, for example the months: Sept. to Nov. 1939  (see the T°C-anomaly maps, below) and May to Nov.1940.. The uncertainty already starts with a lack of precise identification of the events, as a few examples show:  
__ Fraedrich et al.(1992): names 1939 & 1941 and as a period December to February        
__Diaz et al.(1992) assume an ENSO event in 1939, but not in winter 1939/40 __Brönniman et al (2007) mention only the years 1940 and 1941, as less strong than during the years: 1889, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2003  
__Pazo-Vazquez et al (2005)[1][1] mention two El Niño winter events in 1941 & 1942, and one El Niño autumn event 1940        
__NOAA identifies only the year 1941 with a positive event (El Niño) indicating that ‘ocean data anomalies’ with a duration of 15 months occurred[2][2]. From the 10 leading events it would succeed the second longest event in 1997 by two months.
                           Source: Book/2012, Chapter F at: www.seaclimate.com

Neither Brönnimann nor Randel (see above) go into any details. Actually sea surface (SST) data collection in the 1940s wars only random. The following T°C maps for 1939, do not necessarily provide a thorough pictures for substantial climate change claims, but should be accessible for further discussion.

The four Quarters of 1939

12 Months - January to December 1939 – T°C Anomalies in 1939
January	Februry	March	April
May	June	July	August
September	October	November	December

Click to enlarge

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

Hurricane - PATRICIA-Special .California September 1939 (+ heat and rain ) / Mexico October 2015 - HERE

Go to 2. Post

Arctic sea ice record low - 02/25/2015
and human offshore activities not to blame – at least a bit?
posted 17. April 2015

A.  Introduction: Barents and Okhotsk Sea in focus

According NSIDC, Arctic Sea ice extent shows a persistent decline. The latest value was the lowest on 25th February 2015; also March was the lowest in the satellite record, interrupted by late-season periods of ice growth, largely in the Bering Sea, Davis Strait (Fig. 1-4) (NSIDC), and an increase in the Sea of Okhotsk (Fig. 1, 3).

CONTINUE READING

Older Posts

Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.
Posted 25^th February 22, 2015

The effect of stirring

The actual winter 2014/15 is up to now no winter in Northern Europa (Fig. 1-2). Can anthropogene activities in the North Sea, Baltic and coastal seas be made partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters. In the North Sea and Baltic there are continuously up to ten thousand large motor ships at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. (Fig. 3-8) The result is like stirring hot soup. Warm water will come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research or agencies allowing offshore structures who do not consider such evaluations.  ....Cont.//      

Continue reading…

http://climate-ocean.com/2015/K.html 

Ship wake - Ship draught about 7 meters	Ship wake in Oslo Fjord November 2015