Winter 2012/13 for
The Baltic and
will prevent a surprise in March!
Posted by oceanclimate.de /07March13 (ocl_10-4)
by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts
predictions indicate otherwise. (h/t,
NTZ) Central Europe and
brace for the worst temperature plummet since 1987. Snow cover and
minus 15°C assumes Karsten Brandt (06/Mär/13),
due to a current strong height over Greenland moving Southeast
toward Scandinavia over the next few days, explains Udo Baum (07/Mär/13).
One thing is already sure for now; it will not make a
difference to the this moderate winter. Even in the worst case, snow
and low temperature will neither be very significant, nor last for
more than few days. Whatever cold arrives in Northern Europe, the
North- and Baltic Sea will prevent the worst, as their ice-cover is
well below average, and the water temperatures sufficient high to
transfer heat into the air.
The temperatures to expect for the next two weeks are shown in
Fig. 1. Indeed, Scandinavia and NE Europe face some cold, except the
region. Up to the
Gulf of Bothnia
the temperatures are around plus/minus T°C,
confirmed by the anomaly map (Fig. 1, below). Except for a brief
period of time in December 2012 (see
HERE), the sea ice conditions had not
been below average
throughout the winter until now (see Fig. 2, 3 & 4). Maybe the
above mentioned two meteorologist Brandt & Baum, ought to have
taken this into account.
It might be well worth to draw the attention
to a quite different situation in winter 1939/40, when the entire
was fully ice covered on about the 8th March 1940, (Fig.
5) for the first time after about 60 years. Since 1850 the global
temperatures had been rising. The 1930s had been presumably the
hottest decade since the medieval period.
But suddenly, without any warning, the winter
temperatures fell to Little Ice Age level, and the winter
temperatures were extreme low (1.Q. 1940; Fig.6), with March 1940
T°C roughly 2-4 degrees lower than average throughout the
While in March 1940 the heavy icing of the Baltic contributed to the
low March temperatures, the current status of the Baltic will
prevent us from a similar situation back in March 1940.
19. January 2013: Northern
Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013
14. January 2013: North-
and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.