talk on cold March 2013?
should not be ignored!
by Arnd Bernaerts
23 April 2013 (ocl_9-8)
Addendum 24. April 2013 (below)
much have the regional seas in
contributed to the record low temperature in March 2013? It can be a
significant figure , or a rather small contribution of only few
percent, but there was definatly one. Not even mentioning the possibility,
and investigating the matter, is irresponsible and unprofessional.
The Met-Off/UK sees many distant causes, but not at all the
(N&BS): “A number of potential drivers may predispose the
climate system to a state which accounts for these conditions”. HERE
Fact is that March 2013 was the second coldest March in the
UK record since 1910, and was associated with a negative phase of
the North Atlantic Oscillation, and, according Met-Off –
associated with “the loss and thinning of Arctic sea ice
predisposes the winter and spring atmospheric circulation over the
North Atlantic and Europe to negative NAO regimes (s. Box1), as was
experienced at the start of this spring.” (op.cit; and in
PDF) All what they
are telling is that they do not know (see Box 2, below "First:
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate
phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the
difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the
Icelandic low and the
high.. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic
low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and
direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the
A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a
high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies
and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in
and its Atlantic facade. If the NOA-index
is low, westerlies are suppressed,
Wikipedia summarizes the causes in this way: In Northern
Hemisphere the weather
repeatedly directed cold Arctic air southward, leaving Greenland and
much warmer than average for March. The Arctic oscillation index
changed from positive to negative, weakening the pressure gradient.
Throughout March the west Atlantic winds, which normally kept the
relatively mild, have been blowing chiefly from the northeast,
convening cold Arctic air. The westerly Atlantic winds were weakened
by small air pressure difference between northern and southern
latitudes. In late March,
the Arctic oscillation index dropped to -5.6 and much of Northern
Hemisphere experienced particularly low temperatures.
The low value of the Arctic oscillation was the second lowest
March value on record. (HERE)
At several location across Europe a number of record low temperature,
or high snow fall happened, but a record low monthly average was
only recorded from countries close to the North Sea and southern
Baltic, stretching from the
. In the
March was set to be the joint, country’s fourth coldest March
since records began in 1910. In
Germany a deviation of 3,4 Grad versus the reference period
1961-1990 was observed, which was the coldest since 25 years
and the fifth coldest since 1881 (DWD-Press release -12.April 2013).
Sea surface temperature – SST- anomalies in
3; 15. March 2013
4; 31. March 2013
5; 14. April 2013
6; 22. April 2013
Any analysis has to start with a look a the temperature
situation in February 2013, Fig.
1. The temperature in the East of the Baltic is well above average.
The anomaly in March is shown in Fig. 7, which indicates that the
cold is primarily in the West of the Ural, which is confirmed by
anomaly-maps already posted, for example:
to 7. March; __9.March
to 27. March; __27.March
for cold spells from Siberia or the Arctic (discussed earlier HERE)
that shall have caused low SST from Dover to Bornholm, should not
ignores the very decisive
that than the northern Baltic should have been the region to show
the highest temperature deviation during March 2013. But the SST (sea
surface temperature) was not below the winter season mean, nor was the sea ice covers ever
heavier than long term average. Below average had been the SST in
the south-western Baltic and most parts of the
since early March. The downward trend continued until the end of
March, and is still well below average on the 22nd of
April; see Fig. 3-6 (15/03, 31/03, 14/04 & 22/04). The SST along
a stretch from
is slightly below average, Figure 1, which can hardly explain the cold
in March 2013 on its own.
for the reasons of the low March 2013 temperatures in
, and offering explanation to the general public should include the
question on what has caused the low SST as indicated in Fig. 3-6,
which could be anthropogenic. Huge human activities take place every
day, forcing the heat form the previous summer more quickly out as
wind would cause it alone. Not providing a very good answer is
__MetOff_Research News_17.April 2013: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013
22 April 2013: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_extreme_weather_events
First: Addendum 24. April 2013
interesting SST anomalies map for today, the 24th April (Fig. 8).
How it is possible that such a pronounced stripe of sub-low
temperature anomalies stretch from the
English Channel, along the Belgian and The Netherlands’s coast up the German
Bight. The water temperature throughout the
is still very low (Fig. 9). Any human activities will exchange
already warmed-up surface water with colder water from lower levels.
Figure 8 and the cold-band could just be the proof of anthropogenic
change in SST and consequently a change of regional air temperatures.
The record cold March 2013 in
was presumably partly caused by human activities as well. Only Met
Office does not know. Further
material and discussion, see list & links below.
Fig. 8, SST Anomalies
24. April 2013
Fig. 9, SST 24. April 2013
Office’s Private Briefing Document For The Environment Agency
, April 8, 2013
“……….how little the Met’s scientists understand
about what affects our (
) climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather
last year (2012).”
Met Office ……. admit they do not have a clue. This is what
jet stream, like our weather, is subject to natural
– that is the random nature of our weather which means it is
different from one week, month or year to the next. We expect
it to move around and it has moved to the south of the
in summertime many times before in the past.
It has, however, been particularly persistent in holding that
position this year – hence the prolonged unsettled weather.
could be due to natural variability – a bad run of
coincidence, if you will – but scientific research is
ongoing research to investigate whether other factors at play.
cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!
2012/13 and discussion at :
April 2013: Met-Off
loose talk on cold March 2013?
North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
April 2013: 'Urgent'
need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should
investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic
Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did
the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim!
29 March 2013: Cold
March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)
27. March 2013: Strong
Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North-
and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March
2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities
contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold
March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain!
07 March 2013: Winter
2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will
prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern
Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North-
and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.
December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are
we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December
on arctic warming causes cold winters
Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice
results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high
northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially
in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at
middle latitudes of the northern continents.”
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