S. Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño!
Offers El Niño 2015/16 clues for extreme winter in Europe?
Naval War ./.  El Niño – That is the question!

 Arnd Bernaerts, 20. October 2015 ( OGC-12 )

1.   Introduction (Excerpt)

Worst, science is not even willing to investigate the event thoroughly. Two views address the issue:

__1_Prof. Stephan Brönnimann et al.,Letter to Nature (NATURE |VOL 431|21 OCTOBER 2004) wrote:

 “Although the El Niño /Southern Oscillation phenomenon is the most prominent mode of climate variability and affects weather and climate in large parts of the world, its effects on Europe and the high-latitude stratosphere are controversial. Using historical observations and reconstruction techniques, we analyse the anomalous state of the troposphere and stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to 1942 that occurred during a strong and long-lasting El Niño event.

CONCLUDING:
The results suggest that the global climate anomaly in 1940 to 1942 — previously poorly documented — constitutes a key period for our understanding of large-scale climate variability and global El Niño effects.

__2_The post author oppose the view: It was naval war which commenced in September 1939 and increase in Europe’s waters culminating in the Baltic Sea in early 1942, , from where on naval war went westwards in the Atlantic after Japan ambushed Pearl Harbor, ending the exceptional series of cold winters in Europe.  explained in numerous analysis and books.  In his most previous book a full chapter discuss the  El Niño thesis (Chapter F – 6 pages) concluding:

“It is explicitly acknowledgeable that Brönnimann et al discussed the severity of the first three war winters and their importance for climate research. It seems that they were the only ones who did it. Unfortunately, their contribution is limited to very general statements, and due to the lack of facts and analysis there is little room for discussion. Neither is the assertion of a persistent El Niño event being justified, nor have any weather conditions during the three winter seasons in question been addressed. The Authors fail, to contribute to a better understanding of the causes for the three exceptional winters of 1939/40, 1949/41 and 1941/42. “

More details from Chapter F will be provided in subsequent posts.

		all 6 images see further reading
Figure 1-6 ; Sea surface Temperature anomalies from mid-May to October 2015   - all 6 images  see further reading

Full TEXT

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

CLIMATE CHANGE & NAVAL WAR - A Scientific Assessment
Book 2005 Trafford Publishing - Bloomington, Indiana, USA. –ONLINE-HERE-   

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Arctic sea ice record low - 02/25/2015
and human offshore activities not to blame – at least a bit?
posted 17. April 2015

A.  Introduction: Barents and Okhotsk Sea in focus

According NSIDC, Arctic Sea ice extent shows a persistent decline. The latest value was the lowest on 25th February 2015; also March was the lowest in the satellite record, interrupted by late-season periods of ice growth, largely in the Bering Sea, Davis Strait (Fig. 1-4) (NSIDC), and an increase in the Sea of Okhotsk (Fig. 1, 3).

Fig.  1	Fig. 2	Fig. 2	Fig. 4

NSIDC assumes that „ The ice extent recorded on February 25, 2015 was largely due to low extent in the unusually warm Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk” pointing to “….unusual pattern of atmospheric circulation, with the jet stream lying well north of its usual location over Eurasia and the North Pacific…” Again time to blame global warming, or “complex interconnections in the climate system”? (PIK) Reading the reasoning by some researches (below: D), little seems to be known about sea ice retreat and weather anomalies, although the observed “unusually warm Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk” (NSIDC) offer a good opportunity to investigate, whether human activities in these sea areas contribute a share. There are a lot of activities, from fishing, shipping, offshore exploration, affecting the sea surface and the water column, sometimes down to the sea floor below. Any possibility in this respect calls for more and thorough research. Further ignorance is a big blunder. Any pro or contra finding would largely enhance a better understanding of anthropogenic climate change and global warming. 

CONTINUE READING

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Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.
Posted 25^th February 22, 2015

The effect of stirring

The actual winter 2014/15 is up to now no winter in Northern Europa (Fig. 1-2). Can anthropogene activities in the North Sea, Baltic and coastal seas be made partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters. In the North Sea and Baltic there are continuously up to ten thousand large motor ships at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. (Fig. 3-8) The result is like stirring hot soup. Warm water will come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research or agencies allowing offshore structures who do not consider such evaluations.  ....Cont.//      

Continue reading…

http://climate-ocean.com/2015/K.html 

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POST (JULY 2013)

 Competent science should know it since long:  
“Imprint of Southern Ocean eddies on winds, clouds and rainfall”
Abstract at: Nature Geoscience | Letter by I. Frenger, N. Gruber, R. Knutti & M. Münnich
Here posted on 08 July 2013 (ocl_6-9 )
Read all 
 

NEXT

Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather,
titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013
A report by Leo Hickman: “Climate scientists and meteorologists are meeting next week to debate the causes of UK 's disappointing weather in recent years”.
Posted 14. June 2013 (ocl_7-9)

THE GUARDIAN (13/June): “ Washout summers. Flash floods. Freezing winters. Snow in May. Droughts. There is a growing sense that something is happening to our weather. But is it simply down to natural variability, or is climate change to blame?

Fig. 1; UK  Spring 2013

To try to answer the question the Met Office is hosting an unprecedented meeting of climate scientists and meteorologists next week to debate the possible causes of the UK 's "disappointing" weather over recent years, the Guardian has learned.  …

The "roundtable workshop" will attempt to outline the "dynamical drivers of the cold spring of 2013", but attendees are expected also to debate the "disappointing summers of the last seven years".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jun/13/met-office-uk-bad-weather-cause

Continue reading →→→

Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013?
North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored!
Posted: 23 April 2013 (ocl_9-8)

1. Overview

How much have the regional seas in Northern Europe contributed to the record low temperature in March 2013? It can be a significant figure , or a rather small contribution of only few percent, but there was one and not even mentioning the possibility, and investigating the matter is irresponsible and unprofessional.  

The Met-Off/UK sees many distant causes, but not at all the North and Baltic Sea (N&BS): “A number of potential drivers may predispose the climate system to a state which accounts for these conditions”. HERE  Fact is that March 2013 was the second coldest March in the UK record since 1910, and was associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and, according Met-Off – associated with “the loss and thinning of Arctic sea ice predisposes the winter and spring atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Europe to negative NAO regimes, as was experienced at the start of this spring.” (op.cit; and in PDF)  All what they are telling is that they do not know.  

Did the cold March 2013 come from Siberia ?
 A not well founded claim!

Posted 03 April 2013 (ocl_9-9)

 Stefan Rahmstorf  (28/29 March 2013; at: Rabett Run Blog → www.sicslog.de) wrote: “The media are debating if the decrease in  Arctic ice  is related to this winter's cold weather in Germany . This post discusses the most recent current research about this including the most important figures from relevant studies.

First, what does the unusual temperature distribution observed this March actually look like? Here is a map showing the data (up to and including March 25, NCEP / NCAR data plotted with KNMI Climate Explorer):  (graphic*) Freezing cold in Siberia, reaching across northwestern Europe, unusually mild temperatures over the Labrador Sea and parts of Greenland and a cold band diagonally across North America, from Alaska to Florida.“,  *Fig. 1.

 However, the “Freezing cold in Siberia ” seems to be exaggerated. Fig. 1 indicates only the mean temperature measured, but not anomalies. The following series of weekly T°C anomalies forecasts since 14 Feb. 2013  (Fig. 2-8) indicate only a brief cold gush in early March (Fig. 3).

Continue reading →→

March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea .
Did human activities contributed?
Posted: 26 March 2013 (ocl 10_2)

  „You might have heard we’ve had a bit of snow in the UK in the last few days”, opens Verity Jones her post,  titled: “Master of understatement” at “diggingintheclay” today (HERE), reproducing a map by BBS/Met showing the snow areas (Fig. 1): That is an exceptional situation in late March. Rightly the post requires a proper recording by Met Office.  Other wonder how this scenario fist into a global warming world.

 This big surprise should address the question, how such a weather phenomenon can happen, and why science is still not able to explain the underlying mechanism, which has caused the situation. Already many suggestions are in the air, NAO, Jet-Stream, too low ice-cover in the Barents Sea, but little about the role of the oceans in general and the North- and Baltic Sea in particular.

 Let’s have a look at the North Sea , which has been cold in March Fig. 2 & 3 (see also a recent post HERE)

Continue reading → → →

Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe
science should be able to explain!
Posted: 21 March 2013 (ocl_10-3)

 Winter isn’t quite done with the UK yet, claimed ukweather-blog yesterday. March 2013 is set to be one of the coldest in decades, and there is no sign of spring on the horizon, writes “The Telegraph” today (21/03 – Ref.1), and parts of Britain could see up to 16 inches of snow before the weekend, as forecasters warn of severe and unusual weather conditions for the time of year. Northern Europe is in the cold since early March will get another hefty dose of wintry weather through midweek as another storm spreads snow northward to the Baltic Sea and Scandinavia [Ref. 2]. See for T°C anomalies, Fig.1 & 2.    

Continue reading →→→→  

Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over!
The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March!
Posted by oceanclimate.de /07March13 (ocl_10-4)

  Some predictions indicate otherwise. (h/t, P. Gosselin, NTZ) Central Europe and Scandinavia brace for the worst temperature plummet since 1987. Snow cover and minus 15°C assumes Karsten Brandt (06/Mär/13), due to a current strong height over Greenland moving Southeast  toward Scandinavia over the next few days, explains Udo Baum (07/Mär/13).

 One thing is already sure for now; it will not make a difference to the this moderate winter. Even in the worst case, snow and low temperature will neither be very significant, nor last for more than few days. Whatever cold arrives in Northern Europe, the North- and Baltic Sea will prevent the worst, as their ice-cover is well below average, and the water temperatures sufficient high to transfer heat into the air.   

 The temperatures to expect for the next two weeks are shown in Fig. 1. Indeed, Scandinavia and NE Europe face some cold, except the Baltic Sea region. Up to the Gulf of Bothnia the temperatures are around plus/minus T°C, confirmed by the anomaly map (Fig. 1, below). Except for a brief period of time in December 2012 (see HERE), the sea ice conditions had not been below average throughout the winter until now (see Fig. 2, 3 & 4). Maybe the above mentioned two meteorologist Brandt & Baum, ought to have taken this into account.  

 Continue Reading: Text in Archiv →→→→       

See also:
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.

     Previous Post
 14. Jan. 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now.
(ocl-12-6)

  Western Europe seems to be safe to see much of a harsh winter. After a significant, but moderate cold snap in last December 2012 (See HERE), the next few days will be colder until about the 22^nd of January 2013. In Hamburg they may drop to 10-13°C on the 18/19. January, but are back to around 0°C.

 Continue reading →→→→

7 January 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41°C on 11^th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! And man has nothing to do with it? 
(ocl_12-7)
  The situation today (07 January 2013) is shown in Fig. 6 and 7 (for December 2012 see: HERE). Fig. 8 gives a temperature forecast for two weeks until 23^rd January. It is interesting to note, that the land areas around the Baltic have to expect much lower temperature than the sea area.  

  Continue reading →→→→